Probabilistic analysis of seismic hazard at New Bani Suef city, Egypt

Document Type : Original Article

Author

Seismology department, National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, Egypt

Abstract

Because of the problem of high population density, Egypt has set a strategy for establishing new cities along the country. New Beni Suef city is one of such new cities. Egypt was exposed to big-size earthquakes such as the 1992 Cairo earthquake and 1995 Gulf of Aqaba earthquake; therefore, the buildings need to be designed properly to resist the strong shaking of possible future earthquakes.

The current study is based on updated earthquake catalogue. Ground shaking is estimated through the use of a group of attenuation models to treat the epistemic uncertainty in the computed ground motion. On top of that, epistemic uncertainty in recurrence coefficients and maximum earthquake is treated in the calculations. The results are compared with the horizontal response spectrum of the building code to verify the code provisions at the study area. The obtained results can be used for building design and for probabilistic seismic risk analysis at New Beni Suef city.

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